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| Detail from the woodcut "Sword of Damocles" by Wenceslas Hollar |
New evidence that Russian Intelligence operative Konstantin Kilimnick provided polling data from the Trump campaign to Russian intelligence agencies has caused new legal jeopardy for Paul Manafort and Donald J. Trump. A post at the website JustSecurity pointed out that prior reports on the 2016 Presidential election clearly stated that Paul Manafort's former aide Rick Gates passed campaign polling data on to Kilimnick during the 2016 Presidential campaign. Confirmation that polling data was provided by Manafort to Russian Intelligence Agencies "closes the loop" in a criminal profile that describes how the Trump campaign sought the aid of Russian Intelligence agencies to influence the 2016 and 2020 Presidential campaigns, and all that prosecutors need to do is take advantage of a quirk in Paul Manafort's legal status and acceptance of a pardon from Donald J. Trump to solicit the testimony necessary to establish grounds for conviction on campaign finance and conspiracy charges. It's possible that Manafort may also end up becoming the first person in the United States to ever be convicted of violating the Logan Act, for conspiring to influence the outcome of a Presidential election, and assisting in electing a President who had grossly violated the Emoluments clause by behaving in a manner that would make him beholden to foreign intelligence agencies.
1. Trump campaign staffers polled American citizens on a variety of issues. The polling operation appears to have been highly standardized, and the internal polling may have achieved substantially different results from information that was released publicly by the campaign. This polling information was used by the Trump campaign itself, and was also turned over to Konstantin Kilimnick, who passed it on to Russian intelligence agencies. The polling operation is believed to have focused on identifying voters who had a tendency towards authoritarian personality traits.
2. Russian intelligence agencies took that information and gave it to their information warfare experts, who combined it with psychographic profiles created by Cambridge Analytica to guide them in the creation of agitative political propaganda that could be used to appeal to potential Trump supporters. They focused primarily on trying to appeal to socially and economically frustrated white males, who suffered from high levels of anxiety over economic security and racial identity issues. The work of these Russian intelligence agencies was largely informed by studies of prejudice and authoritarianism dating back to the late 1940s, including extensive studies of works by the American Jewish Committee, behavioral researchers like Gordon W. Allport, and more recently the work of George Lakoff. (One of the unfortunate side effects of writing about political psychology and information warfare is that quite often the people who are most eager to read your book, and who will spend the most time with it are those who are actively trying to influence others.)
3. Cambridge Analytica developed a system to develop psychographic profiles of individual voters based upon what they'd chosen to "like" on Facebook. Cambridge Analytica engaged in polling to determine personality profiles that were associated with "liking" certain entities. Those personality profiles were developed according to the "Five Factor Model of Personality". This allowed the Trump campaign to identify audiences who would be receptive to particular types of messaging. (This process was explained in Christopher Wylie's book Mindf*ck.) Cambridge Analytica was effectively the targeting system that allowed the agitative propaganda developed by Russian Intelligence Agencies to be targeted at American voters who were regular Facebook users, and who would be responsive to appeals to their authoritarian tendencies and racial and economic anxieties.
Campaign polling information wouldn't be given to a foreign government for no reason. If Manafort was instructing his aide to provide information to Russian Intelligence Agencies, then he must have had some knowledge of the Communications-Loop described above. If prosecutors are able to establish that such a Comms-Loop existed, and get Manafort to testify that staff were aware of the existence of such an information management system, then every senior staffer in the Trump campaign -including Trump himself- can be charged with campaign finance violations, specifically multiple instances of violating 52 U.S. Code § 30121 - Contributions and donations by foreign nationals, as well as a conspiracy to defraud the United States by conspiring with a foreign intelligence agency to affect the outcome of a Presidential election. This would create a complication for Trump if he attempted to run again, as such a relationship would demonstrate that he very clearly violated the Emoluments Clause of the Constitution, and that he owed Russia a substantial debt for his elections success. That would create grounds to pursue questioning regarding what the Russian government wanted from Trump in exchange for assisting him in the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections.
An additional complication is the pardon that Paul Manafort accepted from Donald J. Trump. If Trump and Manafort's lawyers try to argue in court that the pardon was not limited to the sections listed, but was intended as a general pardon for all of Manafort's acts, then Manafort loses his ability to withhold testimony, as acceptance of a pardon carries an "imputation of guilt" that results in the waiving of one's Fifth Amendment rights. That means that Manafort can be held in custody by the court until he agrees to testify. If Trump and Manafort's lawyers attempt to argue that Manafort cannot be compelled to testify because the pardon was never intended to be general in nature and didn't apply to the matter of Manafort's dealings with Kilimnick, then Manafort could face criminal charges for the campaign finance violations and conspiracy to defraud the United States. Manafort may also have the opportunity to become the first person in American history to be convicted under the Logan Act for actively seeking the aide of a foreign intelligence agency to try to influence the outcome of a United States Presidential election. What he cannot do is claim that he's immune from prosecution because of the pardon, but also insist that he can't be compelled to testify.
Donald Trump used pardons to reward those who were "loyal" to him and who put themselves on the line to protect him from criminal charges during his Presidency. Now it appears that Trump's use of the pardon to maintain cohesion in his criminal empire could come back to haunt him. The Trump campaign appears to have provided polling information to Russian intelligence agencies, who then developed agitative propaganda that would appeal to the socially and economically frustrated and those with authoritarian personality tendencies. That propaganda was then loaded into a social media targeting cannon developed by Cambridge Analytica to try to manipulate the outcome of the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections. A "catch-22" relating to Manafort's pardon status means he cannot claim to be immune to criminal charges because of the pardon, while also being able to maintain his 5th Amendment Right to withhold testimony. If prosecutors are able to get Manafort to testify regarding why he provided polling information to Konstantin Kilimnick, and what he expected out of the deal, he could end up facing criminal charges for campaign finance violations, conspiracy to defraud the United States, and counts of violating the Logan Act.
Image credit: Wenceslas Hollar - The sword of Damocles.jpg
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Wenceslas_Hollar_-_The_sword_of_Damocles.jpg
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