A massive battle is brewing in the GOP over the upcoming nomination process for a replacement for Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. For years, the GOP acted as the political arm of the US Chamber of Commerce and the American Legislative Exchange Council; promoting the interests of business at every opportunity. Now though, the GOP is divided between two masters, and Republicans in Congress will have to decide whom they serve: does the party exist primarily to serve the interests of Vladimir Putin via his puppet dictator Donald Trump, or does the GOP still serve their old master - American business interests? Trump's extremely erratic behavior means he often makes demands of American business interests that companies aren't interested in satisfying - one example being Trump's effort to get "Trump cards" -good for a $100 discount on prescription medications- sent to American seniors right before the 2020 election. Trump loyalist Kevin McCarthy backed Trump on that issue, while American pharmaceutical companies and the Chamber of Commerce balked hard. If Republicans nominate a hardcore Putin loyalist to the court, then American businesses may suffer financial consequences as a result of Trump's arbitrary and capricious demands. Conversely, a staunch Chamber of Commerce loyalist may not always support the rampant voter suppression and white supremacist agenda that is so important to the "Trump base"
Another problem for Republicans is a replacement for Obamacare. The Supreme Court has announced that they will hear arguments in California v. Texas (the case challenging the existence of Obamacare) on November 10th, one week after the 2020 Elections. If Senate Republicans rush through a hardcore Trump loyalist, then Obamacare is likely to be struck down. This is a real problem for the GOP as the party has repeatedly demonstrated that they are neither willing, nor able to draft a replacement for the Affordable Care Act. In addition, given that the majority of the Republican Party's support now comes from working class whites without a college education, GOP voters are the ones who are most likely to lose their health insurance as a result of the law being struck down. Given the recent decrease in life expectancy for rural whites, along with epidemics of opiate abuse and alcoholism, insurance companies are likely to begin requiring liver panel tests prior to issuing any policies to persons who fit into that rural working class demographic, meaning that in a world without Obamacare, many in the Trump base will have to pay up to $100 out of pocket, just to have an insurance company tell them whether or not they are eligible to purchase health insurance. If Republicans nominate a Chamber of Commerce loyalist, then that person is more likely to vote with Roberts to just strike down the penalty section of the law, and many in the Trump base will be angry that Obamacare is still in existence.
Another problem for the GOP is timing. If McConnell tries to ram a nominee through prior to the election, then some Republicans may be hesitant to vote in favor of confirmation for fear that it will hurt their re-election prospects. If he waits until after the election, then Republicans who won't be returning to the Senate may decide that they're finished with Trump and can finally speak freely about Trump and refuse him the satisfaction of another Supreme Court pick (There's no shortage of former lawmakers who have come out and denounced Trump). That means that to induce Republican Senators worried about re-election prospects to support Trump, McConnell basically has to convince them they'll probably lose anyway, then find someone in the Republican Party machine to offer very lucrative post-Senate employment as a reward for giving up on the Senate and maintaining support for Trump.
The Republican Party has demonstrated repeatedly that they are nothing but a bunch of narcissists and opportunists. Anyone who thinks that Republicans shouldn't try to seat a Supreme Court nominee because of what they said in 2016 is being hopelessly naive. The one thing that Democrats can be hopeful for is that today's Republican Party has become so incredibly corrupt, and is so rent by parochialism and back-stabbing as a result of the party's divided loyalties and complex financial interests, that they become victims of their own corruption and in-fighting.
Always on fire with your observations. It's only time when the Post or Times come calling
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